Thimian flavored

Ask questions.I have a friend who works, and lives close to, Oslo, Norway (He’s all right, as far as things can be all right after yesterday). I happen to know the numbers concerning terrorism in Europe: Islamist activity doesn’t really exist (3 incidents in 2010), but that home grown terrorism is very real (246 events in 2010). That’s something that a terrorism expert should also know.

I did a bit of research on the targets: Both were political targets, and not the usual target of Islamist groups. The youth camp was an obvious target for the carnage (over 80 children dead!) al Quaeda prefers, but a governmental office block is much less so. Particularly on a Friday afternoon.Those facts beget the following questions:

Are there any home grown terrorist groups in Norway? No, not really.Does anyone have a motive?  Well, there’s a left-wing group that was audited by the government with devastating results, but they were all talk. And while Norway is active in both Afghanistan and Libya, Norway isn’t exactly a high-profile player in international diplomacy, either.

Just applying some basic statistics (no math involved, just looking at numbers) and things I could find out from some searching and asking a Norwegian questions, I concluded that this devastation was most likely home grown, rather than Islamist motivated.And I was right: It was home grown. I was wrong about who exactly did it (not the leftists, but a lone, deranged individual), but yet I was far closer to the truth than the journalists and the alleged experts.

So I have to ask:Why can I, an average guy with no privileged access to intel on terrorism, nor being involved in analysing terrorism, be so much closer to the truth than those who make it their job (or so they tell us) of asking questions?

Why can I analyse a terrorist incident better than an expert, who supposedly does this sort of thing for a living?Why?

P.S.: My prayers are with Norway, and I hope that PM Jens Stoltenberg and King Harald V of Norway are true to their word, and that justice will be served in the coming trial.